sea level rise – rbouvier consulting

Rachel’s Journal Roundup Q1 2023

By Connor Feeney | March 24, 2023 | Comments 0 Comment

Climate Change and the Farm Business —

“Tractor & field, Anthony-Greeley farm, Maine” by vincelaconte is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

This article analyzes the effects of climate change on food production and farm income. Climate change is expected to exacerbate economic, environmental, and biotic (pests/diseases) uncertainties currently present in agriculture. More specifically, the primary focus of the article is the effect of climate variability, subsidies, and farming practices on the stability of food production and farm income. To accomplish this, the study used 929 farms as case studies across England and Wales between 2005-2017. The study found that variability in temperature and rainfall reduces the stability of farm income and food production. Although variability in climate can be largely outside of the farmers’ control, the authors’ findings indicate that proper farm management may be able to mitigate this effect.

The study found that farms with greater agricultural diversity had more stable income. Likewise, bigger farms were found to have greater financial stability due to both economies of scale and greater soil diversity. Climate conditions were found to affect the stability of both farm income and food production. Subsidies, meanwhile, were found to have a minimal impact on the stability of farm income. The study also found that more concentrated farms (those that spend more on fertilizer, pesticide, and concentrated animal feed) had less income stability but more stable levels of food production. Moreover, the benefits of stable food production were found to benefit larger and medium size farms the most. Lastly, farms with high input expenditures were found to be less efficient, implying that although food production increased with more concentration, this did not correlate to additional income stability for farmers. The article recommends several policies to increase income stability without jeopardizing food production, such as reducing input use, diversifying agricultural output through the use of targeted incentives, and increased incentives for precision farming.

Harkness, C., Areal, F. J., Semenov, M. A., Senapati, N., Shield, I. F., & Bishop, J. (2022, November 24). Towards stability of food production and farm income in a variable climate. Ecological Economics. Retrieved March 10, 2023, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800922003378

Coastal amenities and Sea level Rise—

“Igidae Coastal Trail.” by dombrassey is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

This article explores the economic value of the sea coast through airbnb comparisons (the price of coastal properties vs. inland properties) across 67 municipalities in the Balearic Islands, Spain. The authors choose the Balearic Islands to study due to its high property value and high erosion risk. The study then discusses how climate change has affected coastal assets, and how action will need to be taken to reverse this trend. Although the study takes place across the Atlantic, the results are applicable in the United States due to the universal fact that humans (especially tourists) value coastal properties, and climate change is of course not limited to coastal Spain.

The study finds that Airbnb guests are willing to pay a premium for beach length, the presence of vegetation, the type of coastal frontage and whether the beach is in an urban environment. Meanwhile, the type of sand on a beach has virtually no effect on Airbnb prices. The study also mentions the importance of beach width, which by itself does not add much to the beach aesthetic, but provides important resiliency to erosion. The article concludes by mentioning the obvious economic benefits these coastal premiums provide for local communities, and their risk of eroding over time. Measures will need to be taken to preserve not just the coastal value of the Balearic Islands, but coastal areas across the world.

Boto-Garcia, D., & Leoni, V. (2022, October 1). The Economic Value of Coastal Amenities: Evidence from Beach Capitalization Effects in Peer-to-peer Markets – Environmental and Resource Economics. SpringerLink. Retrieved March 8, 2023, from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-022-00735-5

The Value of Dam Removals—

This article examines the pros and cons of dam removal in Maine. On one hand, removing a dam may enhance wildlife by allowing fish passage. On the other hand, dams can provide recreational and economic value to residents, and are even part of local historical identities. Current academic research is largely split on the topic, indicating that there is no general consensus on the issue of dam removal. Furthermore, the process for removing a dam is relatively complex. To study the effect of dam removal, the authors use 75 case studies – the largest sample size to date, and conclude that dam removal has a minimal impact on home value except for properties that are extremely close to the dam in question (100 meters or less).

Ultimately, the authors believe that dam removal would be beneficial for the environment with minimal economic cost. A limitation of this study is that it focused primarily on rural areas, so the results may not be applicable to urban and suburban environments.

Guilfoos, T., & Walsh, J. (2022, October 7). A Hedonic Study of New England Dam Removals. Ecological Economics. Retrieved March 8, 2023, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800922002853

Marine Tourism Levies?–

This article outlines the need to adopt a behavioral approach built around marine conservation, specifically a tourism levy, whereby tourists would pay a premium when visiting (and using) the oceans of local communities. Unlike past proposals, whereby the revenue collected would be directly invested into local marine conservation efforts, the authors argue that since tourism is not heavily present in the global south (which would benefit the most from such a tax), the revenue from such a tourism levy should go towards a global marine conservation effort. The article surveys tourists to see if such an idea could work in practice. The results found that support for a “tourism levy” depended heavily on income and already present beliefs on the environment. Moreover, the study was limited to English speakers, as well as skewed towards wealthier tourists. As such, it is still hard to assess how practical a tourism levy would be. However, it is undeniable that action needs to be taken to address the degradation of marine ecosystems and wildlife. Overall, this article discusses a potential market solution to the proven “commons” problem of marine degradation.

Booth, H., Mourato, S., & Milner-Gulland, E. J. (2022, August 6). Investigating acceptance of marine tourism levies, to cover the opportunity costs of conservation for Coastal Communities. Ecological Economics. Retrieved March 9, 2023, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800922002403

Water Quality and Property Values–

This article discusses the issue of water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. The Chesapeake Bay is the center of a multimillion dollar seafood industry – creating tens of thousands of jobs – and supports one of the largest property markets in the United States. However, despite recent improvements, declining water quality in the Chesapeake bay due to urban and agricultural runoff is putting these economic assets at risk. The article focuses on studying what, if any, correlation exists between water quality and home liquidity. The study collects data from properties within 2 km of the Chesapeake Bay and in either Anne Arundel, Baltimore, or Harford (all counties in Maryland) as well as the city of Baltimore. The authors explain the importance of this study by saying that a failure to account for the effect of water quality of home liquidity would result in policymakers underestimating the economic benefits of clean water – leading to a suboptimal outcome.

The study found that clean water does correlate with higher home liquidity. The correlation increased the closer houses were to the Chesapeake Bay, but was present at all distances. This was determined primarily by sellers getting more for their homes with less time on the market compared to areas with lower water quality. Shorter listing periods are beneficial to sellers in the form of reduced stress and less holding expenses. Home prices were also higher for houses closer to the Chesapeake Bay. Overall, the study suggests that the benefits from water quality improvement are 13.3% higher when effects on liquidity are considered alongside property value increases. Overall, this study provides an important and underreported perspective on the economic benefits of improving water quality.

Irwan, N., & Wolf, D. (2022, May 25). Time is money: Water quality’s impact on home liquidity and property values. Ecological Economics. Retrieved March 10, 2023, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800922001446

Tides, Taxes and New Tactics Report

By Rachel Bouvier | August 5, 2021 | Comments 0 Comment

The Southern Maine Planning and Development Commission (SMPDC) has released their final report Tides Taxes and New Tactics: Adaptation Planning for the Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge . rbouvier consulting worked with SMPDC and GEI Consultants to review the impacts of sea level rise on the three Southern Maine towns of Kennebunk, York, and Wells. Rbouvier consulting assessed the economic and social impacts for each town and the people who reside there.

The results were presented to each town in a series of three virtual workshops. After the presentation attendees were then able to make suggestions on ways to mitigate some of the impacts, and how they’d like to see those efforts prioritized.

Assessments such as this provide towns and residents with the information they need to be better able to plan for, and potentially mitigate, the impacts of sea level rise.

Economic Resiliency in the Face of Climate Change

By Rachel Bouvier | April 3, 2017 | Comments 0 Comment

“Custom House Wharf Flooding at High Tide” by Corey Templeton is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

Climate change is expected to have a number of effects in Maine, including coastal flooding, sea level rise, and changing precipitation patterns, among others. Many efforts are already underway to help protect communities from those effects, including zoning changes, new building requirements, armoring or elevating critical infrastructure, and the like. These efforts all fall under the heading “climate resiliency planning,” as they make a community more resilient to the disruptions wrought by changing weather patterns.

Ensuring that a local economy is resilient to climate disruption is nearly as important as physical resiliency. The local economy is a complex web of interactions between customers, workers, businesses, non-profits, and government agencies within the region. Economic resiliency planning can help to make sure that that web does not break – or, at least, is easily rebuilt – after a disaster.

Current approaches to assessing the impact of climate change too often ignore economic changes that are likely to occur. Climate change poses physical threats to current businesses, true, but it also poses economic ones, as supply chains dry up, input prices rise, or competitive advantages shift. Focusing on preserving the economic status quo will do little good if advancing sea level rise and increasingly variable weather patterns result in a markedly changed economic landscape.

The first step in developing an economic resiliency plan for a local economy is to anticipate the likely physical changes that will accompany climate change, by taking a look at what areas of a particular municipality are likely to be impacted by certain events. If you’re located on the coast, or if your town center is situated near a river, as is the case for many Maine towns, flooding from hurricanes or other large storms might be a priority. Or, access may be more of an issue. If your town has one or two main routes in and out of town, how likely are these routes to be block by high water, or by downed trees from wind damage? Many communities have already begun this work, through projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or from the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Through this work, communities can get an idea of what physical assets are at risk from climate-related events.

Next, establish a baseline. What are the largest employers in the municipality? What are the largest sources of tax revenue? What are the key industries, and what is the sectoral composition of the economic base? Where do most of the non-resident employers live, and what routes are they likely to take to work? This will create a starting point to assess the local economy’s vulnerability to climate-related disruption. The results may not always be what you think.

For example, many of Maine’s historically most important industries – agriculture, forestry, fishing, and tourism – depend heavily on the climate. The output from these industries is likely to be directly impacted by any climate disruptions. Agriculture, for example, could be both positively and negatively affected by climate change, as higher temperatures lead to a longer growing season, but also to increased need for irrigation. These are the industries that are deemed “climate-sensitive in supply” by economists.

But there are also industries that are “climate-sensitive in demand” – where consumer demand for goods and services is likely to be affected by changing weather patterns or the physical effects that come with them. Tourism, certainly, is one of these (both positively and negatively). Energy is another.

Less obvious, perhaps, are the effects of underlying price changes and linkages between industries. Let’s give an example. Suppose that an increase in hot, humid weather in the northeast leads to increased demand for air-conditioning. (Most areas in Maine now see fewer than four days a year when the heat index rises above 95 F, but that is predicted to change under most projections.) The increased demand for air-conditioning will likely lead to increased electricity prices. Those higher prices will ripple through the economy, affecting everything from family’s budgets to food prices to costs to businesses.

Finally, labor productivity might be affected by climate change. Why? For those of us who have jobs in air-conditioned buildings, and as such are relatively shielded from the climate, the outdoor temperature might not affect our productivity. But for the proportion of Maine workers who work outside, or do not have access to air conditioning, heat-related stress can be a factor, much as it is for livestock in Maine. Moreover, the effect of warmer temperatures on growing seasons works for pollen-producing plants as well, leading to increased rates of asthma and allergies. The spread of insect-borne diseases, such as Lyme, may affect productivity as well (not to mention impacting the health care sector).

Once the likely changes to the local economy are anticipated, policies can be put in place to help reduce risks. Some of these policies might include encouraging local businesses to engage in disaster preparedness with others rather than in isolation, developing a directory of local businesses that can assist in rebuilding after a disaster, and identifying alternative procurement routes in case of a disruption in transportation infrastructure.

Planning for economic resiliency is less about rebuilding the day after a disaster, and more about planning so that economic disruptions are minimized should a disaster occur. And it doesn’t have to be a stand-alone process. In fact, it shouldn’t be. Planning for economic resiliency should be integrated into planning efforts at all levels, from economic development to housing and infrastructure planning. While a disaster almost by definition is unpredictable, we do have the ability to anticipate the changes that will come with a changing climate. We should take the time now to ensure that those changes don’t derail the local economy.

Category: sea level rise