Assessing the Carrying Capacity of the Blue Hill Peninsula
What trends in Maine (unceded Wabanaki Territory) are threatening conservation of the farmland, forests, wetlands, and wildlife habitat that is needed to sustain ecological and community health in a changing climate?
As our communities attract more and (perhaps more urban and wealthier) households, how will the influx affect the capacity of our communities to sustain itself?
The team at rbouvier consulting recently completed a study: “Assessing the Carrying Capacity of the Blue Hill Peninsula,” looking at just that. The project was done at the request of Blue Hill Heritage Trust (BHHT), a conservation organization that is shifting the meaning of conservation from recreation and scenic preservation to working lands and community use. BHHT uses outreach and education to increase the chances of fulfilling their mission: “to lead in conserving land, water, and wildlife habitat on the greater Blue Hill Peninsula; to teach and practice a stewardship ethic; to promote ecological, economic, and community health for this and future generations” (BHHT, 2022). The study looks at the current trends of climate and covid migration impacting the communities of the Blue Hill, Brooklin, Brooksville, Castine, Deer Isle-Stonington, Penobscot, Sedgwick, and Surry.
Want to know what we found?
For this research, rbouvier consulting looked at two specific trends: 1) pandemic-related population trends and climate-related migration trends, trends that have the potential to impact the entire state.) Our charge was specifically to to the following:
- Assess the extent of COVID-19-related migration on the peninsula and its impacts.
- Investigate if climate migration is happening on the peninsula and what the future impacts may be.
- Assess the carrying capacity of the Blue Hill Peninsula and the region’s ability to absorb an inflow of migration.
To assess how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted domestic migration patterns on the peninsula, researchers used change-of-address (COA) request data to quantify estimated change in population due to Covid-19. They identified the origins of movers to the project area, from 2018 to 2021 and determined the origins of migrating households. The findings show a clear overall increase in total COA requests (both permanent and temporary) to the peninsula presumably due to COVID-19 (22%), with variable rates in each community, changing the trend from negative net population to positive. The group also looked at both school enrollment data and housing prices to learn more about the impacts on migration locally. Findings include:
- Both temporary and permanent migration spiked in March 2020. Compared to March 2019, permanent COA requests were up over 53%, while temporary COA requests were up by almost 264%.
- However, in 2021, those trends seem to have reversed, and net COA requests were once again negative, indicating that the population influx may not have been permanent.
- Incoming COVID-19-related migration patterns reveal people moving to the peninsula were predominantly from outside of New England and from urban areas.
- The number of building permits increased slightly, as did home sales and real estate prices.
To assess the impact of climate migration on the Blue Hill Peninsula our researchers were concerned with assessing a) if climate migration is occurring, and, if so, b) who is migrating and from where. To investigate these questions, we completed a literature review of climate migration studies, and inquired into national taxation data published by the IRS to compare filings before and after the pandemic. As part of our investigation, we compared migration trends with weather information for specific climate events and gleaned demographic information about climate migrants to the Blue Hill Peninsula. Further assessment was done to estimate the impact of this trend on housing, jobs, infrastructure and schools.
- Households driving current climate migration trends have the financial wherewithal to move by choice to escape from perceived dangers (wildfires, flooding, hurricanes, or a pandemic).
- The households that migrated to Hancock County in 2020 had an average income that was 20% above the average household income for the county in 2019.
For this study, rbouvier consulting defined carrying capacity in terms of regional sustainability. Looking at regional analysis and tourism impact studies, we determined three interconnected component systems that simplify regional systems: a) physical, b) economic and c) social. With these three focus areas, we developed candidate indicators and screened those indicators for data availability and accessibility. Initial data collection focused on establishing a threshold level for each. With these indicators and baselines set, we evaluated each indicator against the threshold and were able to categorize each indicator with a rating scale based on levels of constraint on the system. When we combine migration findings with carrying capacity analysis, the findings reveal present and future constraints on the carrying capacity of the region as follows:
- The impact of a wealthier, more urban population may affect the carrying capacity of the peninsula.
- The wastewater treatment facility in Blue Hill is not likely to be able to withstand a significant increase in population. Moreover, the facility is at risk from sea level rise.
- Roads and schools are likely to remain unconstrained for the foreseeable future.
- Land for development is already constrained, though it varies in each community.
- There appears to be enough land for farming, but to the extent it is being farmed is unknown. Preservation of farmland is already below conservation targets.
- Both cost of living and housing affordability are likely to worsen, as is the economic inequality in the region.
- Social conflicts are likely to accelerate between long-term residents and new arrivals.
Why is this work important?
We feel that this is exactly the kind of research that communities should have at their disposal while they are working on planning the future in uncertain times. The pandemic might have spurred a spike in migration, but climate migration seems to be an progressive trend, bumping up migration with each significant climate event. That is why we have begun to study the migration trends for Cumberland County. We expect to release our findings to the public soon. So, stay tuned for that. In the meantime, we have permission to share the study if asked. If you would like to read Assessing the Carrying Capacity of the Blue Hill Peninsula, please drop us a line.
4 Replies to “Assessing the Carrying Capacity of the Blue Hill Peninsula”
Bill Baue (b.baue@r3-0.org) has created a model for regional limits in terms of impacts. It is similar but better than the Science-based Targets approach on GHG emissions and water use but better. I greatly encourage you to reach out to him if you take this notion seriously.
Thank you very much Andy! We will check look into it.
I am co-chair of the Surry Comprehensive Plan Committee, and we are very interested in accessing any localized data that can help us as we consider the likelihood and impact of climate and other migration triggers. I would very much like to receive the Blue Hill Peninsula study to share with our committee. Thanks.
Hi Irene, Thank you or your comment on our blog post. Have you reached out to rachel@rbouvierconsutling.com as well? If not I would be happy to share the report for the Blue Hill study with you.